Brazil’s orange juice exports in jeopardy under proposed U.S. tariffs

Brazil’s fruit and juice exporters are bracing for disruption as the United States prepares to impose an additional tariff of up to 50% on Brazilian imports starting August 1, 2025. The measure could severely impact key products like orange juice and mangoes, triggering export losses, domestic oversupply, and falling farmgate prices.

Orange juice is particularly vulnerable. Already taxed at $415 per ton, Brazilian juice would face even higher entry costs, putting its competitiveness at risk in the U.S. — Brazil’s second-largest market and a destination for roughly 80% of its juice exports. In response, processors have suspended new contracts and moved to the spot market, where prices are ranging between BRL 40.00 and BRL 45.00 (USD 7.40–8.35) per box.

The situation comes as Brazil expects a record harvest of 314.6 million orange boxes in the 2025/26 season, up 36.2% from the previous year. The risk of oversupply and rising inventories is high, according to experts.

Mango exports — scheduled to begin in August — are already seeing shipment delays and cancellations due to the uncertainty. Grapes, which begin exporting to the U.S. in September, are also expected to be affected.

What began as a promising export season — supported by a favourable exchange rate and improved crop yields — has now turned into a scenario of market uncertainty. Analysts point out that there is a real risk of global oversupply and downward pressure on producer prices.

If U.S. access tightens, Brazil may redirect fruit to the EU or sell it domestically, putting pressure on already stretched distribution channels and driving prices down further. Brazil’s own import flows may also shift amid the changing trade landscape.

Industry leaders are urging swift diplomatic efforts to secure exemptions, warning that disrupted trade could harm both Brazil’s economy and U.S. food security.

source: hfbrasil.org.br

photo: solidaridadnetwork.org