Mexico’s tomato exports face a tougher 2026

Mexico’s tomato sector is heading into 2026 with lower production, reduced export volume and tighter margins. USDA-FAS forecasts national output at 2.6 million metric tons, down 9% from 2025, as growers face smaller planted area, weather pressure, stronger production costs and new trade barriers in the U.S. market.

Exports are forecast at around 1.8 million metric tons in 2026. That would mark another decline after shipments already weakened in 2025. In 2024, Mexico exported 2.06 million metric tons of tomatoes worth USD 3.34 billion. For 2025, exports were projected at 1.96 million metric tons, valued at USD 3.2 billion.

The United States remains the key destination, normally taking more than 90% of Mexican tomato exports. In 2025, shipments to the U.S. were estimated at 1.83 million metric tons, worth USD 2.98 billion. This heavy dependence has become a bigger risk after the U.S. imposed a 17.09% antidumping duty on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico in July 2025, following the termination of the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement.

Smaller area, higher reliance on protected production

Mexico’s planted tomato area is forecast at 38,000 hectares in 2026, or about 93,900 acres, down 11% from 2025. The cut reflects weaker margins and higher uncertainty, especially for open-field growers.

Protected agriculture now accounts for about 65% of Mexican tomato production. The shift is logical: open-field systems usually produce 45–75 metric tons per hectare, while medium-tech shade houses can reach 140–215 tons per hectare. High-tech greenhouse systems may produce 250–300 tons per hectare, especially for specialty tomatoes.

This difference matters for exporters. Greenhouse and shade-house production allows better control over quality, sizing, timing, shelf life and residue management — all essential for U.S. and premium market programmes.

Main regions and varieties

Tomatoes are grown in 31 of Mexico’s 32 states, with key production areas including Sinaloa, Baja California, San Luis Potosí, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Central Mexico and the Bajío region.

Sinaloa remains central to export supply, especially during the autumn-winter season. Central and western regions help extend availability across the year.

Mexico exports several tomato types, including Roma/Saladette, round tomatoes, cherry, grape, cocktail, heirloom and tomatoes-on-the-vine. Roma remains one of the main volume categories, while greenhouse operators are increasingly focused on specialty formats with stronger price potential.

Minimum export prices introduced after the U.S. trade dispute also vary by category. Reported levels included USD 1.70/kg for cherry, grape, cocktail and heirloom tomatoes, USD 0.88/kg for Roma tomatoes, USD 0.95/kg for round tomatoes and USD 1.65/kg for round tomatoes with stems.

Diversification remains limited

Mexico has access to other markets, including Canada, Japan, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Central America, South America and the Middle East. However, replacing U.S. demand is not realistic in the short term.

Canada increased purchases by around 7,500 metric tons in 2025, but this was still less than 1% of Mexico’s usual export volume to the U.S. The scale gap shows how difficult diversification remains, even when alternative destinations are growing.

Weather adds another layer of risk

Drought and low yields affected production in 2025, while rainfall in early 2026 improved water availability in Central Mexico and the Bajío region. Still, better rainfall has not been enough to drive area expansion.

Growers also remain exposed to possible El Niño-related disruption, especially in northern production areas. In protected systems, humidity and heavy cloud cover can increase disease pressure during flowering, affecting yields and export-grade quality.

Read the full report here.

source and graphics: fas.usda.gov