New Zealand apple exports set to reach highest level in six years

New Zealand's apple industry is expected to continue its recovery in 2027, with commercial production forecast at 590,000 tons and fresh exports reaching 410,000 tons, according to a new report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The projected harvest would be the country's second-largest on record, marking a return to production levels seen before the pandemic and the damage caused by Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023.

Apple production continues to recover

Commercial apple production is forecast to increase from 585,000 tons in 2026 to 590,000 tons in 2027. The planted area is expected to expand from 11,100 to 11,250 hectares, while the harvested area will reach 10,900 hectares.

The recovery is supported by young orchards entering full production and the replacement of older varieties with higher-value apples. Growers are increasingly focusing on Envy, Dazzle and Fuji, while plantings of traditional varieties such as Braeburn continue to decline.

Hawke's Bay remains the country's main apple-growing region, accounting for more than two-thirds of production area, followed by Tasman.

Asian markets drive export growth

Fresh apple exports are projected to rise from 405,000 tons in 2026 to 410,000 tons in 2027, the highest level since the 2020/21 season.

During January-August 2026, New Zealand exported 385,840 tons of apples, up 6% year-on-year. Export revenue for the same period approached NZ$1.25 billion (US$712 million), already reaching a record level.

China remained the largest destination, receiving 91,349 tons, up 17.7% from the corresponding period of 2025. It accounted for approximately 23% of total shipments.

India recorded particularly strong growth, with shipments increasing 33.8% to 50,657 tons. Taiwan imported 44,824 tons, up 4%, while Vietnam received 42,283 tons, an increase of 10.8%.

Exports to Hong Kong climbed 48.4% to 20,318 tons, and Thailand received 21,714 tons, up 7.1%.

In contrast, shipments to the European Union fell 52.1% to 11,733 tons, while exports to the United Kingdom declined 17.2% to 18,629 tons. Deliveries to the United States also decreased by 4.3% to 15,872 tons.

Trade agreements offer new opportunities

New Zealand's network of free trade agreements continues to support its apple exports. Under the trade arrangement with India, preferential access provides for a reduction in import tariffs from 50% to 25% within an initial quota of 32,500 tons, scheduled to increase to 45,000 tons by the sixth year.

New Zealand apples have also benefited from duty-free access to the European Union since May 2024, while the United Kingdom removed its remaining tariffs and quotas on fresh apples in January 2026.

However, exports to the United States face an additional 12.5% tariff introduced in July 2026. The USDA's offshore inspection program continues to facilitate shipments of premium and organic apples to this market.

Rising costs and weather remain concerns

Despite higher production and export volumes, New Zealand growers continue to face financial pressure. Fuel costs increased 59% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, adding to expenses for transport, packaging and orchard operations.

Bank lending to the country's horticultural sector reached NZ$8.55 billion (US$4.87 billion) in August 2026, up 5% from the previous year and more than double the level recorded in early 2018.

Seasonal labor shortages also remain a concern, particularly during harvesting and packing. Planned changes to the Recognized Seasonal Employer scheme, beginning in 2027, are expected to provide greater flexibility in recruiting workers.

Weather could present another challenge. Strong El Niño conditions are expected to bring warmer, drier weather to eastern growing regions, including Hawke's Bay, increasing irrigation needs and the risk of lower fruit quality.

source and graphics: fas.usda.gov