Updated survey cuts Brazil’s 2025/26 orange outlook

Brazil has reduced its orange production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 294.8 million boxes, according to updated estimates from the Fundecitrus survey covering the São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt.

The new projection represents a downward revision from the previous forecast released earlier in the season, following fresh grove assessments and yield measurements.

The adjustment reflects lower fruit set and smaller average fruit size observed in several producing areas, which are expected to weigh on final volumes at harvest.

Even with the cut, the crop remains above last season’s output, signalling a recovery year on year, though below initial expectations.

Fundecitrus will continue monitoring orchard conditions and may update figures again as harvesting progresses across Brazil’s main citrus region.

source: fundecitrus.com.br

graphics: expanamarkets.com