China’s apple and pear output set to ease in 2025/26 season

China is preparing for a slight decline in the production of its main deciduous fruits in the 2025/26 season, as weather challenges and structural changes continue to affect output. The outlook reflects recent market analysis from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Beijing office.

Apples

Production of apples is forecast at around 47 million tonnes, down nearly 5 percent year on year. Drought, excessive rainfall and heat stress affected yields and fruit quality in key producing provinces such as Shaanxi, Gansu and Shandong. At the same time, orchard restructuring and ongoing labour shortages are gradually reducing planted area. While Fuji remains China’s dominant apple variety, growers are increasingly turning to newer cultivars to improve quality and strengthen market positioning.

Pears

Pear output is projected at approximately 20.5 million tonnes, slightly below last season’s level. Production trends vary across regions, with some provinces maintaining stable volumes while others face weather-related disruptions. Market trends indicate a gradual shift away from traditional pear varieties toward newer, sweeter types, in line with changing domestic consumer preferences.

Table grapes

In contrast, table grape production is expected to increase, supported by improved orchard management practices and advances in cultivation techniques.

Trade outlook

From a trade perspective, apple imports are forecast to rise modestly, driven by demand for counter-seasonal supply and premium fruit, particularly from Southern Hemisphere origins. Pear imports are expected to continue declining as domestic availability remains sufficient. Chinese exports of apples and pears are projected to edge up slightly, with Southeast Asia and Central Asia continuing to serve as key destination markets.

U.S. fruit exports to China continue to face pressure, mainly due to tariffs and strong domestic competition, a factor that remains closely watched as suppliers plan for upcoming export windows.

source: fas.usda.gov

photo: veritablevegetable.com