Forecast of Australian Plum and Cherries Production in 2007

Australian plum production (including fresh prunes) for CY 2008 is projected at 34.000 MT in CY 2008. Uncertainty over export market access combined with reduced new plantings is likely to see production remain unchanged over the forecast period. Industry sources report large declines in production in states which are particularly reliant on export markets and are not Queensland fruit fly free such as Western Australia. The exclusion of Australian plums from Taiwan resulted in price declines and unharvested fruit. Australian cherry production in CY 2008 is projected to reach 11.000 MT. Post has assumed average weather conditions in arriving at this projection. Some industry sources suggest production could be far higher and have projected levels as high as 15.000 MT. Post's assumption of average weather conditions includes some below average weather events, which would likely constrain production to the forecast levels. The Australian cherry industry has a relatively buoyant outlook despite suffering poorer weather conditions in recent times. The loss of Taiwan as an export market has not constrained production of cherries as it has in other stone fruit.