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Positive indicators for the global table grapes industry
PE | Rabobank
Despite the “exciting times” of constant changes we are facing, economic growth and global trade of table grapes remain positive.
During the first panel cession of the 11th International Table grapes Symposium (ITGS) held in Murcia this week, RaboBank agrifood consultant Cindy van Rijswick presented macroeconomic trends and market perspectives for the table grapes industry. Cindy gave the GDP growth figures and perspectives between 2024 and 2027. Among the major 6 major economies only China and India are showing slight slowdown, with 1% reduction of their GDP between this 4 years period. EU zone economic growth remains too slow at 1%, while US Brazil and Australia expect a higher GPP growth rate in 2027.
Disruptions are likely to continue upwards
The Middle East conflict disrupts the international trade of table grapes evenly. According to Cindy energy prices will remain elevated over the winter period. “It will take a while before cost pressures cascade down the supply chain” said Cindy. The current inflation on energy may cause a cost rise between 3 and 7% for the table grapes farmers, between 4 and 8% for potatoes, about 20% for the grains. Cindy reminded that no crisis is the same, compagnies and consumers also learn to adapt, since the 2021 post-covid period in particular.
Multiple actions against climate chain
The challenge of climate requires actions across multiple horizons and practices, on a short, medium and long term. According to Rabobank about a third of the production of table grapes will be in danger in the future. El Niño is likely to create disruptions in the table grape market this season, like a reduction of table grapes exports from Peru. Adjust pruning and reduce crop-load can be among immediate decisions before the next season. On a mid-term basis a redesign of the production system is necessary, like irrigation based on plant needs, soil conservation practices. Structural decisions can also be planned on a longer run, like relocation, diversification, change of varieties or rootstock.
For more information on macro trends impacting table grapes markets, you can click here.
