Brazil prepares agriculture as very strong El Niño risk tops 90%

Brazil is stepping up preparations for El Niño as forecasts point to a more than 90% chance that the event will reach very strong intensity during September-November.

The outlook, cited by Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) from the latest CPC/NOAA projections, comes as the Agriculture Ministry receives 163 risk-management measures developed by Embrapa for the 2026/27 season.

Wetter south, drier north

The expected effects vary sharply across Brazil.

Rainfall is forecast above historical averages in the South, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, as well as parts of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. Northern and northeastern Brazil are expected to see drier conditions.

Below-normal rainfall is also more likely in parts of central and southeastern Brazil, including Mato Grosso, Tocantins, northern Goiás, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.

Temperatures are expected to remain above average across most of the country.

For agriculture, the combination creates different risks depending on location. Producers in drier areas could face delayed rains, prolonged water deficits and heat, while southern farms may have to manage excess rainfall, storms and possible flooding.

Fruit and vegetables included

Embrapa’s recommendations cover several agricultural sectors, including fruit production and vegetable growing.

The measures address risks such as irregular rainfall, drought, heat, excessive precipitation and severe storms. They include changes to soil management, crop and variety selection, farm operations, protective structures, drainage and irrigation.

The package contains 14 measures that can be applied across agriculture, 139 recommendations for specific production chains and ten supporting measures linked to public policy and wider risk-management programmes. Around 50 Embrapa specialists contributed to the work.

Shift towards prevention

Some of the wider recommendations include closer monitoring of weather forecasts and local data, use of Brazil’s Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning system, diversification of production, contingency planning and greater use of agricultural insurance.

Embrapa and the Agriculture Ministry stress that the measures are not limited to the current El Niño. The aim is to strengthen longer-term preparation for droughts, excessive rain, heat waves, frost, storms and other climate events.

INMET also cautions that a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean more severe damage in every region or crop. However, the probability of disruptive weather increases, making continued monitoring particularly important as Brazil moves through the spring and into the 2026/27 growing season.

source: portal.inmet.gov.br

photo: gov.br