Positive forecast for global apple market in the 2023/24 season

According to a recent report by the Foreign Agriculture Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA), the 2023/24 apple season anticipates a slight increase in global production, reaching 83.1 million tons, driven by recovering supplies in China, South Africa, and the United States, which outweigh losses in the European Union and Turkey. Exports are estimated to rise by 632,000 tons YOY to 6.1 million tons, primarily due to higher shipments from the United States, Iran, and China.

In China, production is forecasted to increase by 500,000 tons YOY to 45 million tons. Exports from China are expected to rise by 71,000 tons YOY to 845,000, driven by increased supplies and boosted shipments to Asian markets. Imports are projected to decline by 15,000 tons YOY to 80,000 due to reduced shipments from New Zealand following damage from Cyclone Gabrielle.

EU production is forecasted to decrease by 475,000 tons YOY to 12.2 million due to higher-than-normal fruit drop and cold temperatures affecting pollination, especially in top producer Poland. Despite this, the overall quality is expected to be good, with France and Spain showing improvements. Exports from the EU are forecasted to increase by 62,000 tons YOY to 1.1 million, driven by greater export-quality supplies and boosted shipments to India and South American markets. Imports are projected to remain nearly flat at 250,000 tons.

Turkey's production is expected to decrease for the first time since 2014/15, easing by 118,000 tons YOY to 4.9 million, influenced by low moisture during bloom and unseasonal rains during fruit maturation. Despite this, the industry continues modernizing, with growers converting orchards to two-dimensional growing systems and planting higher-yield varieties. With lower supplies, exports are expected to contract by 16,000 tons YOY to 380,000 tons.

In the United States, production is forecasted to increase by 56,000 tons YOY to 4.4 million tons, driven by good growing conditions and a recovery in Washington state output. Greater supplies are expected to boost exports by 209,000 tons to 820,000, with shipments to major U.S. markets, including top market Mexico, increasing. Exports to India are also expected to improve after removing India’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. apples. U.S. imports are anticipated to remain near historical levels, slightly increasing to 110,000 tons on greater shipments from Southern Hemisphere suppliers.

India's production is expected to hold steady at 2.4 million tons due to favorable weather conditions and unchanged planted areas. Imports are forecasted to increase by 50,000 tons YOY to 410,000, driven by strong consumer demand and greater shipments from the European Union, Afghanistan, and Turkey.

South Africa's production is anticipated to rise by 80,000 tons YOY to 1.2 million, benefiting from good growing conditions and output from new plantings coming into full production. Quality is expected to improve over the previous year’s hail-damaged crop. Minimal growth in planted areas is expected as growers shift investments to managing inputs such as reliable power and water sources. Exports are forecasted to increase by 55,000 tons YOY to 650,000.

Chile's production is expected to contract slightly to 907,000 tons due to the ongoing downward trend in planted areas. Exports are projected to decrease by 10,000 tons to 480,000 due to reduced supplies.

Mexico's production is expected to remain steady at 812,000 tons, with new trees coming into production in the largest producing state of Chihuahua. Imports are forecasted to increase by 18,000 tons YOY to 250,000 on recovering U.S. supplies.

New Zealand's production is forecasted to rebound by 20,000 tons YOY to 463,000, although still below previous highs as orchards recover from Cyclone Gabrielle. A decline in planted area is expected in certain regions, but remaining trees are anticipated to have a full season’s crop. Investments in technology for improved labor efficiencies and fruit quality management are ongoing, and improved supplies are expected to lift exports by 10,000 tons YOY to 320,000.

soucre: apps.fas.usda.gov