Kenya’s avocado production set to reach record 727,000 tonnes in 2026

Kenya’s avocado sector is expected to continue expanding in 2026, supported by rising orchard area, improving yields and renewed export demand, according to the April 2026 report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Output

Production is forecast to reach 727,000 tonnes in 2026, representing a 4.8% increase from the previous year as new orchards mature and farm management practices improve. The harvested area is projected to expand to about 37,600 hectares, reflecting a continued shift by growers toward avocado cultivation as a higher-value crop.

Kenya remains Africa’s leading avocado producer and exporter, with production concentrated across more than 30 counties. Murang’a remains the largest producing area, followed by key regions including Meru, Nyamira, Kisii, Nakuru, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Embu, while cultivation is also expanding into western counties such as Uasin Gishu, Nandi and Trans Nzoia.

Varieties

The country produces more than 40 avocado varieties, although export trade is dominated by a smaller group of commercial types. Hass remains the leading export variety, accounting for 74.2% of production in 2025, followed by Fuerte at 23.3%, Pinkerton at 1.5% and Jumbo at 0.9%. Additional varieties such as Keitt, Reed and Booth 8 are mainly supplied to domestic markets or used as rootstocks.

Season

Kenya’s avocado harvest follows two main production windows. The primary season runs from March to August, while a secondary harvest typically occurs from October to December. Peak export availability generally extends from March through October depending on regional weather conditions and altitude.

Exports

Exports are expected to recover in 2026 following disruptions in the previous season. Shipments are forecast to reach 130,000 tonnes, up 7.4% year-on-year, after declining to 121,000 tonnes in 2025 due to stricter export controls and shipping disruptions linked to insecurity in the Red Sea trade corridor.

Value

In value terms, avocado exports generated USD 159.1 million in 2025, making the commodity one of Kenya’s most important horticultural export earners despite the temporary drop in shipment volumes.

Key markets

European and Middle Eastern destinations continue to dominate Kenya’s export trade. The Netherlands remained the leading market in 2025, accounting for 24% of export volume, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 19%. Spain and France together represented about 11%, while Turkey and Germany each held roughly 5% of shipments. Newer markets such as China and Iraq recorded strong growth, with additional demand emerging from India, Italy and Oman.

Challenges

The report highlights several structural constraints that continue to affect the sector. Limited cold-chain capacity and post-harvest handling infrastructure remain key bottlenecks, while longer shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope have increased transit times and freight costs. Regulatory measures to prevent premature harvesting have also temporarily restricted exports in recent seasons, although these controls are intended to protect product quality and long-term market access.

Read the full report here.

source and photo: fas.usda.gov