Will apple price drop will continue?

According to latest EU dashboard on the apple market last August 2025 prices ex-packaging station averaged €105 for 100 kg of fruit, already below last year’s strong start but still within a healthy range. Prices slid to €98 in September, later continued a downward. Last month the price index fell further to €88, making a 17% decline within just two months. The current trajectory (red line on graph 1) is still above the five-year average (blue line), which typically remains stable around €84–€86/100 kg throughout the season.

The drivers of the decline

Several factors are influencing the downturn: larger volumes, reduced spending, strong competition, increased logistics costs. Poland and Italy indicated a higher-than-expected production for the 2025/26 season, adding supply pressure at the start of the marketing year.  European consumers remain highly price sensitive and demand for apples is being a more price-elastic fruit category compared to berries or tropical fruits. Southern Hemisphere suppliers continued to secure a firm foothold in EU markets during the transition between seasons.

Higher operating costs for growers and packing stations, including storage energy expenses, have created tighter margin and pushed more operators to release the product early, increasing early-season supply.

EU apple imports shrink but stabilize

According to Eurostat data extra-EU imports of fresh apples have declined significantly from 430,000 tonnes in 2018 to 275,000 tons in 2024 (graph). This represents an overall decline of around 35%.

The imports were affected by trade disruptions like geopolitical shifts, supply chain volatility, changing consumer preferences. Chile and South Africa remain the backbone of EU apple imports, while

Balkan and Eastern European suppliers fluctuate. Countries such as North Macedonia, Serbia, Moldova, and Ukraine show significant year-to-year variability. Argentina and Brazil remain small but consistent suppliers, while other countries shrink considerably.

China and Poland still lead global apple production

Recent data from Eurostat and FAOSTAT show that China remains the Undisputed Global Leader, accounting for 51% of total global output. The United States follows distantly with 5.3%, holding the position of the second-largest producer. After the U.S., production becomes more fragmented among several mid-sized producers: Turkey 4.7%, Poland 4.0%, India 3%, Italy 2,3%, Iran 2,2%, Russian Federation 2.1%, France 1.9%, Chile 1.5%.

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