Brazilian orange production set to soar in 2025/26 season

Orange production in Brazil’s main citrus regions is expected to rebound significantly in the 2025/26 season, bringing relief to a sector facing tight juice supplies. According to a new estimate from Fundecitrus, growers in São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro, and the southwest of Minas Gerais could harvest around 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes, a 36.2% increase compared to the previous season. This rise is welcome news, as orange juice stocks are currently well below the strategic level and expected to remain low until at least July 2025.

If fruit processing keeps pace with the harvest, global juice inventories may recover to safer levels by July 2026. However, with more supply expected, the record-high prices seen in October 2024 are unlikely to continue. Even so, prices may stay above long-term averages due to ongoing global demand.

Fundecitrus attributes the surge in production to two main factors: a 7.5% increase in the number of producing trees and more favorable weather conditions during the growing cycle. The total number of fruit-bearing trees has grown from 169.9 million to 182.7 million this season. The industry is now watching closely to see how the market will respond as harvest and processing operations scale up.

source: cepea.org.br

photo: solidaridadnetwork.org