Latest consumer trends and retail opportunities with the US market

The recent webinar conducted by the American produce association IFPA and the market research agency Circana shared latest market trends and growth opportunities in the US. For Circana food analyst Carlos Salazar consumer choices are still largely influenced by pricing pressures. 84% of US consumers surveyed perceive prices as higher than expected, including high income. About half of them (49%) are extremely concerned about food cost inflation, it is a majority of the GenZ and Young Millenials generations. Overall consumer confidence dropped -11,8% between February 2024 and February 2025. It was as high as 79% confident consumers in January or March 2024, it dropped to 67,8% in February still 74% in December).

Higher growth for fresh food

Retail sales of fresh food and floral have been the food category with higher growth +4,9% in value and +3,2% in volume in 2024. Average food and non-food retail growth was +3% in value and +2% in volume. Only 3 FMCG categories were above fresh food in growth: beauty, pet care, health and wellness products, with 6,4%, 5,6% and 5,5% value growth respectively. The recent issue on Trump tariffs does not seem to significantly affect consumer behavior. A January survey on US Tariffs on imported good let by Circana showed a higher level of 37% of consumers who somewhat or strongly support them. 27% of the consumers oppose them, while 36% of them remain neutral.

Mass supermarkets and club stores the growing channel

Circana retail panel of the sales of fruit and vegetables per panel confirm the progress of supermarket and club stores formats. Mass supermarkets have progressed from 17,1% market share with produce spendings in 2021 to 18,7% in 2024. Club stores (like Costco) progressed from 11,7% to 13% in the same period. Discount of “food value” stores remained stables. Online retailers remain marginal but grew from 2,5% to 3% of the last 4 years. Traditional food supermarkets are the larger and more declining segment, from 51% market share in 2021 to 47,7% in 2024.  

Top growing categories

Fresh Berries, fresh avocados, table grapes and onions were the 4 produce varieties within the ranking of Top15 fresh fruit categories with value growth other the last 12 months in the US. Berries continue to show strong growth in both volume and value sales of +10,3% in volume. It increased sales value by +693,9 million of US Dollars between February 2024 and January 2025, according to Circana Integrated Fresh panel. Avocados grew +3,1% sales volume and +US$ 569,9 million in value, fresh grapes +8,7% volume and +US$463,8 million value growth. Onions are the only vegetable on the ranking of Top15 fresh food, growing 4% in volume and raised +319,9 million the retail sales.

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