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Notable changes in apple production worldwide
VU
There are significant changes projected in apple production and trade across various countries for this year, according to the latest semi-annual report from the USDA.
China, a major apple producer, would experience a substantial decline in production by nearly 5 million tons, reaching 41 million tons. This drop is primarily attributed to reduced production in the Shaanxi and Shandong provinces, the main apple-producing regions. The decrease is a result of high temperatures during the flowering period, which adversely affected fruit set.
Furthermore, low market yields have led to the removal of apple trees in several northern and western provinces in China. Additionally, the aging farm population in the country is impacting orchard management. As a consequence, it is estimated that Chinese apple exports will decline by over 20%, amounting to 770,000 tons, due to the lower supply.
On the other hand, shipments of Chinese apples to Russia have resumed. The ban, imposed in 2019 due to pests, was lifted in 2022. However, it is anticipated that the volumes of apple exports to Russia will only partially compensate for weaker sales in other markets.
In terms of imports, China is expected to witness an increase of 10,000 tons, totaling 85,000 tons. This rise can be attributed to higher shipments from New Zealand at the beginning of the season, which spans from July to June.
Speaking about the European Union (EU), apple production is projected to experience a slight increase, reaching 12.8 million tons. This growth is primarily attributed to improved production in Poland, where favorable flowering and pollination conditions resulted in abundant fruit set. However, despite the increased supply, it is estimated that EU apple exports will decrease by 100,000 tons, amounting to 1.1 million tons.
The rise in cold storage costs is expected to discourage the storage of the fruit destined for export. As a result, larger volumes are likely to be directed towards the processed sector, ultimately boosting consumption, which is estimated to reach 12 million tons.
In the United States
Chilean apple production is expected to decline by 1 million tons. The decrease in acreage will be partially offset by higher yields resulting from favorable growing conditions. Consequently, exports from Chile are projected to reduce to approximately 585,000 tons.
New Zealand's apple production and exports are anticipated to reach their lowest levels since the 2009/10 season. This decline is primarily due to significant damage caused by Cyclone Gabrielle, which struck the North Island in February. The North Island accounts for over 65% of New Zealand's apple production. As a result, exports are expected to fall by over 20%, amounting to 270,000 tons.
South Africa is expected to reduce apple production by 51,000 tons, totaling 1.2 million tons. This decrease is attributed to trees recovering from two years of record harvests.
Turkish apple production is projected to reach an impressive 4.8 million tons, with an estimated increase of 277,000 tons. This growth can be attributed to the favorable growing conditions and the implementation of new apple tree varieties that yield higher quantities. As a result, exports are expected to surge to 410,000 tons, driven by the increased supply and with shipments destined for lucrative markets such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Mexico's production is anticipated to remain stable at approximately 640,000 tons.
Meanwhile, in India, apple production would rise by 50,000 tons, reaching a total of 2.4 million tons. This boost is credited to timely rainfall during the flowering and fruit set stages, creating optimal conditions for apple growth and fruit development.
source: fas.usda.gov, simfruit.cl
