Mexico avocado production set to reach 2.8 MMT in 2026

Mexico is expected to maintain its position as the world’s leading avocado producer, with output forecast to reach 2.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026, up about 3 percent year-on-year, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Avocado Annual report.

The increase reflects favourable growing conditions, improved production practices and sustained international demand for Mexican avocados.

Production area

Avocado cultivation remains heavily concentrated in Michoacán, which accounts for around 68 percent of national production, followed by Jalisco (12 percent) and the State of Mexico (5 percent).

Michoacán continues to benefit from fertile volcanic soils and a climate that supports multiple bloom cycles, allowing year-round harvesting. However, production there has recently faced pressure from unfavourable weather and tighter enforcement of land-use regulations, including measures targeting orchards established on deforested land.

Mexico produces almost exclusively the Hass variety, prized for its durability, texture and flavour in export markets.

Exports

Exports are forecast to reach about 1.34 MMT, a 5 percent increase compared with the previous year, supported by strong demand in international markets.

The United States remains by far the dominant destination, absorbing roughly 80 percent of Mexico’s avocado exports by volume. Other key markets include Canada (around 7 percent) and Japan (about 3 percent).

Logistics costs and seasonal harvest fluctuations affected export performance in the previous year, but shipments are expected to recover as global demand continues to expand.

Imports

Mexico imports very small volumes of avocados, mainly to supplement domestic supply during short seasonal gaps. Imports are forecast at about 3,800 MT, continuing a downward trend as domestic production increases.

Environmental and regulatory pressures

Despite strong export growth, the sector faces increasing scrutiny over environmental sustainability, particularly related to deforestation and water use in expanding avocado orchards. Authorities have introduced stricter compliance measures and certification requirements for orchards linked to export supply chains.

Read the full report here.

graphics: fas.usda.gov, SIAP