What’s About to hit Europe’s Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector?

Europe’s fresh fruit and vegetable (F&V) sector is entering one of its most transformative periods in decades. According to Rabobank’s latest insights, a combination of megatrends, including resource scarcity, climate pressures, demographics, regulation, and technological acceleration is reshaping production systems, trade flows, and consumer behavior at unprecedented speed. The era of abundance is fading, and with this shift comes both significant risk and new opportunities for growers, traders, and retailers.

Consumer market is changing, not growing

Although EU wages have recovered and labor markets remain solid, consumer sentiment is still negative. “Sticker shock” remains pervasive: shoppers feel prices have risen too fast, and consequently, price sensitivity is at a high point. This cautious mindset directly influences food purchasing behavior. Volume data shows minimal growth across the broader food sector. Europe’s food demand is no longer expanding but instead shifting in composition. Europe’s population is ageing, with a shrinking working-age group. This increasingly influences dietary needs, shopping patterns, and the types of fresh products that consumers prefer.

Demand concentrated in a few rising categories

Only a small number of fruits and vegetables are seeing steady volume growth across most EU markets, as shown in graph. Products such as berries, tropical fruit, and certain fresh vegetables are gaining popularity thanks to health-focused consumers, premium positioning, and year-round availability supported by imports.

European production is increasingly unstable.

Climate change, extreme weather, water scarcity, higher production costs, and regulatory constraints all contribute to stagnating or declining volumes. Data shows high volatility in EU output, contrasting with more stable global production trends. Input prices like fertilizers, energy, crop protection, and other essentials remain well above pre-2020 levels. And these figures exclude rising labor and financing costs, which are among the biggest pain points for growers.

Imports on the rise

Extra-EU imports continue to grow, though most are complementary and counter-seasonal. Europe is increasingly reliant on southern hemisphere and tropical suppliers to meet year-round demand, especially for higher-value fruits. Regions like Peru, Chile, and Mexico have expanded rapidly in export rankings. Peru has become a powerhouse in blueberries and grapes, driven by massive investments in varietal innovation and crop diversification.

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