Mexican avocados : the impact will be considerable

Even if the suspension of US imports turns out to be short-lived, the impact will be considerable. In Mexico, avocado growers could experience financial ruin, the domestic market will be overwhelmed by volume, causing prices to plummet. In the US, the halt in imports directly impacts the supply of avocados on the market and the price should vary according to the volumes available.

 

 

USDA-APHIS, the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, announced on 12 February that it was halting its avocado inspections in Michoacan. Stopping US inspections means stopping US imports. In Mexico, US inspectors ensure that exported avocados do not carry diseases that could harm US avocado crops.

 

The state of Michoacán is the scene of turf battles between drug cartels and gangs, avocado growers there are victims of extortion by these criminals. In 2021, a group of farmers took up arms by installing armed "vigilantes" to patrol the areas surrounding avocado orchards to prevent "kidnappings, extortion and theft of avocados".

 

Even if the suspension of imports proves to be short-lived, the impact will be considerable. Avocado growers in Mexico could experience financial ruin as hundreds of tonnes of fruit will rot or can only be mrketed in the domestic market, which will be overwhelmed by the volume, causing prices to plummet. Other workers in the sector are at risk of being made redundant.

 

In the US, avocado lovers can expect prices to rise. The average price has risen by about 40% since January 2021, from USD 1.05 to USD 1.36 per avocado. The halt of imports directly impacts the supply of avocados on the market and the price should vary according to the volumes available.

 

According to industry experts, the halt in US imports will be short-lived. Because of the importance of the sector for Mexico and the appetite of American consumers for avocados. Among all the scenarios considered, one of the possibilities would be that the Mexican government sends an emissary to negotiate a kind of truce between the parties, a new agreement including the respect of the American inspectors in order to return to the previous situation.