Planning for 2026 with a data-driven view from the Helios AI’s Global Commodity Outlook

In 2025, climate risk across key producing regions repeatedly moved outside historical norms during active growing periods. Helios AI data recorded sharp spikes in Weighted Average Percentage of Risk (WA%R) — in several cases exceeding 50% — driven by rapid swings between overly dry and overly wet conditions.

These were not isolated events. Similar patterns emerged across multiple origins, sometimes more than once within the same season.

What set 2025 apart was timing. Elevated climate risk appeared weeks or even months before its impact became visible in official production estimates, grower reports, or market commentary.

During these windows, crops were already under stress while volumes still appeared normal. The result was uneven quality, early price movement, and procurement decisions made with limited visibility.

Helios’ analysis shows that short, intense spikes in climate risk — rather than full-season failures — were enough to affect yields, quality, and pricing. Sustained or extreme increases in WA%R consistently preceded supply pressure and price volatility, confirming climate risk as a leading indicator rather than a retrospective explanation.

Why this matters for 2026 planning

The lesson from 2025 is clear: waiting for confirmation now comes at a cost. By the time disruption appears in official data or market reporting, procurement decisions are often already underway. Last season’s climate risk data showed that supply stress and price pressure were building well before the market formally acknowledged them.

The Helios AI Global Commodity Outlook is built for this reality. Delivered through the Helios AI platform, it combines climate risk modelling, growing-season analysis, and price forecasting across major producing regions, with outlooks extending up to 12 months ahead. The goal is to identify climate stress early enough to anticipate supply, quality, and price impacts before they surface in the market.

That early visibility is where value is created. As Chris DeRose, President of Libby’s, explains: “Thanks to Helios AI’s platform, we were able to predict an increase in mandarin prices six weeks ahead of the market and secure a year’s supply from our partners — saving 15%.”

The Helios AI platform is now available to buyers, traders, and exporters seeking data-driven planning for 2026.

Start planning ahead of volatility — send an inquiry for more details.