Mexico’s deciduous fruit market stays import-dependent in 2025/26

Mexico’s production of fresh deciduous fruit is expected to remain unchanged in the 2025/26 marketing year. Domestic output continues to lag behind consumption, meaning imports will remain an essential part of market supply, based on the latest USDA figures.

Apples

Apple output is projected at around 807,000 tonnes, marking a modest increase compared with the previous season. Roughly three quarters of production is concentrated in the state of Chihuahua, where planted area has stabilised in recent years.

Despite this, further yield gains are proving difficult. Water availability remains a limiting factor, while higher input and production costs continue to weigh on growers’ margins.

The United States remains the country’s main supplier, supported by geographical proximity, well-established logistics channels and tariff-free access under the USMCA framework.

Pears

Domestic pear production remains relatively small, at an estimated 26,500 tonnes. Imports of around 55,700 tonnes are therefore expected to cover most of market demand.

U.S. pears account for roughly 60 percent of total imports, reflecting consistent supply availability, efficient transport routes and strong consumer recognition in the Mexican market.

Table grapes

Mexico’s table grape production is forecast at about 391,000 tonnes, with output largely concentrated in Sonora. The region’s early harvest window continues to give Mexican exporters an advantage in accessing seasonal markets.

Exports are expected to reach 220,000 tonnes, with the vast majority shipped to the United States. At the same time, imports are projected at 126,000 tonnes, highlighting ongoing off-season demand within the domestic market.

Pricing and consumption trends

Retail prices for deciduous fruits remain under pressure, particularly for apples and table grapes. Inflation, higher logistics costs and rising input prices are keeping prices elevated, which is expected to limit growth in overall consumption. Demand remains strongest in urban centres and higher-income segments.

Trade and regulatory context

Trade flows continue to be supported by long-established phytosanitary arrangements between Mexico and the United States, allowing imports to move with relative stability. No significant regulatory changes are anticipated for the 2025/26 season, although compliance costs remain a challenge, especially for smaller operators.

Under the USMCA, U.S. deciduous fruit continues to enter Mexico duty-free, reinforcing the country’s dependence on U.S. supply and limiting diversification toward alternative origins.

Read the full report.

source: fas.usda.gov

photo: senasica.gob.mx, fas.usda.gov