Apple production and exports outlook for Ukraine, Serbia and Moldova in the 2020/21 season

On July 28, 2020 EastFruit, FAO and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) held the International online conference "EastFruit Apple Outlook" with the support of industry associations from Ukraine, Moldova and Serbia. 

Among the main topics for discussion was the question about global demand - will it be grown as fast as apple production in the 2020/21 season? The prices on the domestic market of Ukraine, Moldova and Serbia, which now at their peak were also discussed. What the situation will be with the prices in the coming months?  The question about what can apple growers expect in the 2020/21 season was disscused also at the conference.

According to Andriy Yarmak, Economist of Investment Department in Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Ukraine, Serbia and Moldova shows the fastest growth rates in production and exports among all countries in the region. However, apple production in the USA, for example, is growing almost as fast as in these countries. The growth leader in terms of increased volumes is China. Iran and Turkey are slowly becoming very important global players. Apple production is also growing fast in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. For the first time in many years, the countries of Central Asia can almost completely provide themselves with their own apple in the 2020/21 season.

“3.8% annual decline in world apple trade is a global trend of the apple market over the past five years. At the same time, apple production in the world is growing by 1% every year, despite the recently intensified negative impact of weather factors,” said Andriy Yarmak.

Ukraine

As Ievgen Kuzin, Manager of International projects "APK-Inform: Vegetables and Fruits" (Fruit-Inform) noted, Ukrainian gardeners focus mainly on the domestic market this year due to high prices for apples in Ukraine. 

“According to forecasts of "APK-Inform: Vegetables and Fruits", the production volumes of apples export in Ukraine in 2020 will be higher than in the previous season, but lower than in 2018, when a record amount of apples were produced. Expected to be produce about 1.2 million tons of apples this season in Ukraine. For comparison: the production has been at the level of 1.15 million tons in 2019, and 1.5 million tons in 2018,” shares Ievgen Kuzin.

Russia

Ievgen Kuzin gave comments about Russian apple market also. He explained that apple import to Russia has been declining for the second season in a row. At the same time, the country is still dependent from import and makes about 850 000 tons of import per year, despite the upward trend in domestic production. As for now, Russia imports 10% or 70 000 t less apple in 2020/21 to previous season and 14% or 103 000 t less than 5 y.a.

Serbia

During the conference, Yulka Toskic, Manager of the Serbian Apple Association, said about the situation on the Serbian market: “The current season in Serbia was influenced by the situation related to the COVID-19. However, export results are strong. Prices on foreign markets for Serbian producers are satisfactory this year, so the main volume of apples were sold, and a small one remained in storage. According to preliminary forecasts, the volume of apple harvest that Serbian gardeners expect to get this season will amount to 500,000 tons.”

Yulka Toskic also added that Russian market is the main market for the sale of Serbian apples. However, the country supplies apples to 40 countries worldwide in recent years.

Moldova

Igor Gorashov, CEO & Owner of Gigacom LLC shared his predictions according to which Moldovan gardeners will produce about 700 000 tons of apples in 2020. He also said Moldova not only grows apples, but also increases its storage and processing capacities in recent years.

Making forecasts regarding the development of the apple market in Serbia, Moldova and Ukraine in 2020 Andriy Yarmak said the production of apples in these countries will increase by 3.6% or 80 000 tons compared to 2019. A record amount of joint apple export are expected from these three countries (besides supply to Russia) and will reach 90 000 tons in contrast with last season. He also drew attention to an unrepresentative survey held by the EastFruit project among apple producers and exporters in Eastern Europe, which showed that gardeners expect the risen of prices by an average of 6.5% compared to last season. At the same time, more than half (56%) of respondents are sure that apple prices will be higher this season than in the past, and only 32% believe that prices will come down.

The full video of the International online conference “EastFruit Apple Outlook 2020/21” can be viewed here.