Import growth reshapes Bulgaria’s tree nut supply structure

Bulgaria’s tree nut market continues to be shaped by import dependence, with foreign supply widening its lead over domestic output as weather-hit harvests and strong industrial demand reshape trade flows, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Supply contraction tightens local availability

In MY 2023/24, combined domestic output of almonds and walnuts declined sharply following drought and heat stress. Almond production dropped 35% year-on-year, while walnut output fell 15%, pulling total tree nut supply down 18% to 4,072 MT. Yields were affected across both crops, reinforcing structural volatility in Bulgaria’s orchard performance and limiting exportable surpluses.

Imports surge to record volumes and values

With local supply constrained, imports accelerated across all major categories. Total almond and walnut imports reached a record 7,797 MT in MY 2023/24, a 72% jump from 4,512 MT a year earlier. In value terms, combined imports climbed to $23.4 million, up 48% year-on-year.

Almonds

Imports exceeded 2,900 MT (shelled weight), up 34%. Import value reached $15.14 million, rising 31%. Average price: $5,165/MT (down from $5,307/MT).

Main suppliers: United States (64% volume share), Spain (14%), Greece (10%). U.S. shipments posted particularly strong growth, expanding 62% in volume and 60% in value year-on-year.

Walnuts

Imports surpassed 4,800 MT (in-shell basis), up 109%. Value rose to $8.33 million, a 98% increase. Shelled walnuts dominated trade flows at 4,347 MT, accounting for 89% of total imports.

Key origins: Ukraine and China led shelled walnut supply with 38% share each, while Ukraine supplied 81% of in-shell volumes.

U.S. walnut exports totalled 126 MT worth $250,000, covering both shelled and in-shell product.

Pistachios

Demand diversification is accelerating, particularly in higher-value segments. Pistachio imports climbed to 1,308 MT, a 77% annual increase, while value rose 58% to $9.11 million.

The United States led supply with 47% market share, driven largely by in-shell product. U.S. pistachio shipments more than doubled, surging 115% in volume and 99% in value.

Peanuts remain high-volume snack and processing input Although not classified as tree nuts, peanuts retain a major role in Bulgaria’s nut trade and confectionery supply chains.

Imports recovered to 15,483 MT in MY 2023/24, up 14%, with value rising 23% to $23.2 million. Shelled product represented 86% of volume and 77% of value.

Top suppliers: Argentina (32%), United States (15%), Nicaragua.

U.S. peanut exports alone reached 2,330 MT, worth $3.2 million, marking growth of 28% in volume and 45% in value.

Trade structure shifts

Historically a walnut exporter, Bulgaria has transitioned into a net importer since MY 2020/21 as domestic supply struggled to meet quality and processing demand.

Rising purchases from the United States, intra-EU partners and Black Sea origins highlight a structurally import-driven market, with shelled formats, particularly almonds and walnuts, dominating procurement for retail packing and industrial use.

Forward outlook (MY 2025/26)

Looking ahead, the USDA FAS expects Bulgaria’s tree nut supply structure to remain import-led in MY 2025/26, as domestic orchard recovery is projected to stay gradual following consecutive weather-affected seasons.

Almond and walnut output is forecast to post only a modest rebound, remaining below historical peak levels, while processor and retail demand is set to keep procurement channels active.

As a result, total tree nut imports, particularly shelled almonds and walnuts, are projected to hold at elevated levels through MY 2025/26, supported by stable sourcing from the United States, intra-EU suppliers and Black Sea origins.

Pistachios are also expected to maintain upward trend, with premium snack and re-export demand reinforcing Bulgaria’s reliance on external supply.

Read the full report here.

source and graphics: apps.fas.usda.gov, tradedatamonitor.com