Up to 68% higher costs by 2050 due to climate change alone

Climate change is “on course to make fresh fruit and vegetables unaffordable” within the next two decades, becoming the dominant force behind rising produce prices in the UK, according to a research of The Autonomy Institute titled “The Price of 5 a Day”. The study was also revealed last week by the Fresh Produce Consortium (FPC), the organization that supports the fruit and vegetables industry in the UK . The study projects that increasing heatwave intensity will significantly raise the cost of both imported and domestically produced fresh produce, placing greater pressure on consumers, retailers, and food manufacturers alike.

11% higher costs by 2035 as low projection

The analysis suggests that heatwaves alone could increase the price of the UK’s 20 most commonly consumed fruits and vegetables by around 11% by 2035, and by as much as 68% by 2050 under a high-emissions climate scenario. These increases would come on top of standard inflationary pressures already expected across the economy. The Autonomy Institute is calling for a government-led inflation strategy for reducing prices to start now to ensure affordability is maintained for healthy essentials in the future. 

Imported And Domestic Produce At Risk

Imported tropical fruits appear particularly vulnerable. The report forecasts climate-related price increases of between 12% and 14% by 2035 for products such as bananas, oranges, table grapes, melons, and easy peelers. By mid-century, those increases could reach between 80% and 93%, driven by growing disruption to production in key exporting regions. UK-grown staples such as carrots and mushrooms are more insulated but still expected to rise by around 7%.

Up to 170% combined with inflation

When combined with projected baseline inflation, average shelf prices across a typical basket of fresh fruit and vegetables could exceed 170% above current levels by 2050, the report estimates. Picture: FPC, The Autonomy Institute.

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