Mixed outlook for US grapes, strawberries, peaches, cherries and watermelons

Warmer spring temperatures accelerated fruit development across California in 2026, bringing earlier harvests for cherries, peaches, table grapes, strawberries and watermelons, according to the latest Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook from the USDA Economic Research Service.

Table grape shipments start early

California’s 2026 table grape season began several weeks earlier than usual. Shipments from southern growing regions started in May, while central California entered the market ahead of schedule in June.

Total California grape shipments through the third week of July were above the same period last year. However, weekly volumes from southern California were lower during June and July, and the region is expected to finish the season below its 2025 total.

California table grape shipments are expected to continue until December. The USDA will release its first official 2026 grape production forecast in August.

California’s table grape acreage fell to an estimated 118,000 acres in 2025, down 2% from the previous year. This was the fifth consecutive annual decline.

Strawberry volumes rise

Warm conditions also accelerated California’s strawberry season. Shipments increased in March and April as the spring crop arrived earlier.

May shipments were 14% below the previous year, while June volumes were close to 2025 levels. Overall, California strawberry shipments through mid-July were around 5% higher year on year.

California accounts for approximately 90% of US strawberry production.

Mixed outlook for peaches

California peach production is forecast at 480,000 tonnes in 2026, down 10% from last year.

The decline is mainly linked to a smaller clingstone peach crop, which is expected to fall by 20% to 170,000 tonnes. These varieties are mainly used by the processing and canning industry.

Freestone peach production, which largely supplies the fresh market, is forecast at 310,000 tonnes. This would be 3% below last year but still 12% above the recent three-year average.

Fewer US cherries expected

Total sweet cherry production in the main producing states is forecast at 310,500 tonnes, down 17% from 2025.

Washington, Oregon and Michigan are all expected to produce smaller crops. California is forecast to harvest 63,000 tonnes, up 24% from last year’s limited crop.

The California season started and finished around two weeks earlier than normal. Warm spring weather accelerated development, while heavy rain in April and May caused cracking and crop losses in some orchards.

Watermelon supplies remain lower

US watermelon shipments through the third week of July were approximately 4% below last season.

The season started early in Arizona and California’s Imperial Valley because of warm winter and spring temperatures. However, volumes later fell below last year’s levels as hot weather increased pest pressure and reduced yields.

Texas shipments were also sharply lower after heavy rainfall affected pollination and increased weed, insect and disease problems.

source and graphics: ers.usda.gov