Brazil's orange production suffers a historic drop due to drought and diseases

Orange production in Brazil faces its worst decline in three decades due to extreme weather conditions and outbreaks of citrus greening disease. The current season has been severely impacted by a combination of severe drought and high temperatures, as reported by Latin media outlets.

Drought impact

Brazil is experiencing the most intense drought recorded since 1950, with water levels in the Amazon Basin dropping to historic lows, according to data from the National Center for Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning (CEMADEN). This drought affects 5 million square kilometers, equivalent to 58% of Brazil's territory, and more than a third of the country is suffering from extreme conditions. The usual rainfall pattern from August to October has not occurred, worsening soil moisture loss and lowering the levels of rivers, lakes, and groundwater. Even with the return of rains in late October, the quality of the current orange harvest remains below expectations.

Additional problems

The low river levels have complicated river navigation, impacted hydroelectric power generation, and encouraged the spread of pests. During 2023, key producing regions, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, endured 11 consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, the outbreak of citrus greening disease has devastated production in these areas.

Production figures

In Casa Branca, São Paulo, over 80% of orange trees are infected with citrus greening disease, leading to a 30% reduction in yields per hectare. Industry projections indicate that the 2024/25 orange harvest will total 232.38 million boxes (each weighing 40.8 kg), representing a 24% decrease compared to the previous year and the lowest production since 1988/89.

Price increases

The drop in supply has raised the price of oranges in Brazil from 45 reais (US$7.74) per box in 2023 to 80 reais (US$13.76) in 2024, an increase of 78%.

Global impact

Brazil, which supplies more than 70% of the global orange juice market, has reduced its output, causing international prices to soar. Since early 2024, orange juice prices have risen by more than 50%, with futures reaching US$4.92 per pound in September, nearly three times higher than two years ago.

Market consequences

The British Fruit Juice Association reports the lowest availability of orange juice in over 50 years. Countries that rely on Brazilian orange juice may turn to other exporters, such as South Africa. However, establishing new supply chains will take time, leaving the global orange juice market in an unstable state in the short term.

Source: simfruit.cl; Photo: abrafrutas.org