Dual trends in China’s 2025/26 stone fruit sector

China’s stone fruit sector is entering marketing year (MY) 2025/26 with mixed trends. According to a recent USDA's GAIN report, peach and nectarine production is forecast to fall by 3% year-on-year to 17 million metric tons, largely due to droughts in Shanxi and Shaanxi and a damaging cold snap in Shandong. Labor shortages, land conversions, and rising production costs are also pressuring output, particularly in developed regions like Jiangsu and Shanghai.

Meanwhile, cherry production is expected to climb by 6% to 900,000 metric tons, driven by expanded acreage and greenhouse cultivation in provinces like Xinjiang and Sichuan. Greenhouse-grown cherries are increasingly popular for their ability to extend the supply season from February to July, although they come with higher production costs and require specialised care.

Imports

Cherry imports from Chile are projected to remain strong and possibly increase further in MY 2025/26. Thanks to a bilateral free trade agreement, Chilean cherries enter China duty-free, and over 90% of Chile’s exports are directed to the Chinese market. In the previous season, China’s imports of Chilean cherries rose 44% year-on-year, largely due to a surge in availability ahead of the Lunar New Year.

In contrast, U.S. cherry imports are likely to decline, as fruit from Washington state faces up to 45% in combined retaliatory tariffs, making prices uncompetitive. Importers are cautious, with wholesale prices estimated to rise over 50% compared to the previous year. Imports from New Zealand and Canada remain small but stable. Spain recently gained market access and may enter the market modestly.

China also imports counter-seasonal peaches and nectarines, mostly from Chile, and to a lesser extent from Australia. Import volumes remain low due to ample domestic supply, with peak import months running from January to April, especially March.

Exports

China’s peach and nectarine exports are set to rise further, with key destinations including Russia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. Shandong’s exports of firm peaches to Russia grew 30% year-on-year in MY 2024/25.

Greenhouse cherry exports are still minimal but may grow over time, especially to Russia and Southeast Asia, as production scales up.

Prices

Despite reduced supply, domestically sold conventional peaches and nectarines have seen flat or declining prices, largely due to weak demand and an oversupply of low-quality varieties. At wholesale markets, early greenhouse-grown nectarines were priced between 20–30 RMB/kg ($2.80–$4.20), while open-field early peaches fetched around 10–20 RMB/kg ($1.40–$2.80).

Domestic cherry prices also continue to decline, pressured by local oversupply and a surge in Chilean imports. For example, in Dalian, greenhouse-grown Meizao cherries sold to traders at 70 RMB/kg ($10) — a 15% drop compared to the previous year. The anticipated fall in imported Chilean cherry prices is expected to put further downward pressure on local cherry markets.

While high-quality and specialty stone fruits — such as yellow peaches, donut nectarines, and premium cherries — still command higher prices in both domestic wholesale and retail channels, the price gap between premium and standard-grade fruits continues to widen, and this divergence is likely to intensify.

source: apps.fas.usda.gov

photo: producereport.com