Pessimistic perspectives for citrus production in the 2023/2024 season in the EU

The European Union's citrus production faces a pessimistic outlook for the 2023/2024 season. A severe drought, restricted irrigation, and abnormally high temperatures during the flowering and fruit-setting stages have constrained the citrus yield potential in EU member states. According to a recent Global Agriculture Information Network report by the USDA, the upcoming season's production is poised to remain at levels akin to the already limited harvest of 2022/2023.

The surge in lemon and grapefruit production would offset the decline observed in the output of oranges, mandarins, and clementines. Importantly, imports continue to gain ground amid a backdrop of weak demand fueled by inflation.

For the 2023/2024 season, the total citrus production in the EU is expected to reach 9.9 million tons, closely mirroring the levels of the previous campaign but falling short of the historical average. However, beneath this apparent stability lie diverging trends among various citrus categories.

Oranges and mandarins/clementines, comprising nearly 85% of EU citrus production, are expected to experience declines of -2% and -5%, respectively. In contrast, grapefruits are projected to grow by 6%, while a 15% growth in lemon harvest is projected during 2023/24. A reduction in citrus production is expected in Spain, Greece, and Portugal, while Italy foresees a higher yield than the meager output recorded in 2022/23.

Throughout the 2023/24 season, farmers in the EU faced escalating costs, spanning energy expenses (fuel and electricity) to fertilizers and phytosanitary products. Nevertheless, the higher on-field prices may contribute to improving profit margins for producers, offsetting the adverse impact of the EU's second consecutive short citrus harvest. However, an upswing in fresh fruit and overall food prices is expected to dampen consumption in the EU. Similarly, with the projected lower citrus harvest in 2023/24, a diminished quantity is anticipated for processing purposes.