Weather shifts impact Brazil’s fruit production: What to expect in 2025

In Brazil, the shift from El Niño to La Niña in late 2024 was weaker and shorter than expected, with its biggest impact felt in January 2025. La Niña is expected to weaken by March, leading to neutral weather conditions for autumn and winter.

Banana production in 2024 struggled due to weather extremes and disease, causing limited supply and higher prices. Heavy rain, followed by hot, dry conditions, stressed plantations in the South and Southeast, while heatwaves and Panama disease affected production in the Semiarid region. A partial recovery is expected in 2025 with better disease control and improved rainfall.

Apple harvests in 2023/24 were 25% lower due to a mild winter and rainy spring in the South, which weakened plant growth. A slight recovery is expected in 2024/25, but past rainfall and disease still pose challenges.

Formosa papaya production surged in early 2024 due to high temperatures in late 2023, but supply later stabilized with cooler weather. Excess fruit was seen between September and November, while rain and heat in December limited supply.

Melon production in the Northeast faced delays due to heavy rains in early 2024, increasing disease risks. However, the RN/CE region saw milder impacts, and 2025 production is expected to stabilize.

Watermelon farms in Rio Grande do Sul saw delays due to rain in early 2024, but conditions improved in Goiás later in the year. In Bahia, heavy rain and high temperatures in January 2025 started affecting fruit growth.

Mango production was low in early 2024 due to 2023’s heatwaves, but better weather later helped recovery. In 2025, rain and heat in the Semiarid region are restricting floral induction, limiting supply.

Grape production suffered in 2024 due to high temperatures and disease outbreaks, especially in the São Francisco Valley. Weather challenges also impacted harvests in Paraná and São Paulo, but a potential recovery is expected in 2025.

source: abrafrutas.org

photo: forksoverknives.com