BIG interview: why fruit quality feels like a lottery — and what Felix Instruments’ half-million data points reveal

Over the past decade, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and other tools have enabled a new kind of analysis — non-destructive, rapid, and repeatable. Felix Instruments has scanned more than half a million individual fruits across crops such as avocado, table grape, berry, kiwi, mango, apple, and citrus. The result is one of the largest datasets of its kind.

The patterns observed in that data don’t just confirm what many in the industry suspect — they challenge long-held assumptions and reveal new opportunities for consistency and consumer trust.

To understand what this means for growers, packers, and retailers, Fructidor spoke with Galen George, Director of Applied Science, and Scott Trimble, Marketing Director at Felix Instruments.

Variability is greater than anyone thinks 

The strongest lesson from Felix Instruments' dataset is that variability is enormous. Not just from orchard to orchard, or even region to region, but within a single tree. Two avocados located in different canopy positions can have significantly different dry matter content or oil levels. 

Traditionally, growers may sample five or ten fruits from a block and assume those represent the whole. But when variability is that high, a handful of fruits can’t possibly capture the true picture. The result is fruit shipped too early, too late, or with wide inconsistencies that show up later on the retail shelf. 

This is why so many consumers experience what feels like a lottery when buying fruit: sometimes perfect, often disappointing. 

The decline of fruit quality 

In the last five to six years, many industry observers — ourselves included — have noticed a troubling trend: fruit quality on supermarket shelves is declining. 

There are multiple causes. Environmental pressures and higher yields have stretched resources. Export pressures mean more fruit must be pushed through quickly. On top of that, market dynamics are squeezing quality from both ends: retailers and e-commerce platforms push for year-round availability at stable prices, run aggressive promotions that shorten decision windows, and prioritize speed-to-shelf and low shrink KPIs.  

Consumers, meanwhile, expect perfect appearance and consistent eating quality — and they broadcast disappointment instantly via reviews and social media. The result is tighter timelines, compressed margins for careful testing, and more variability making it to the shelf. And testing procedures — already inconsistent across regions — aren’t yet keeping pace with these combined pressures. 

When poor postharvest handling goes unchecked, consumers end up with avocados showing internal browning, apples with weak texture, or kiwifruit that fails to meet expectations. This decline is not just an inconvenience. Over time, it erodes consumer trust and can shift buying habits toward competing products or pre-processed alternatives. 

Misunderstood metrics 

The industry relies heavily on a handful of maturity and quality metrics. Each is valuable, but also widely misunderstood: 

Dry matter in avocados

Dry matter is the accepted standard, but it is essentially a proxy for oil content, which is a key driver of consumer satisfaction. Few people outside research labs realize this. Dry matter became the metric because it’s easier to measure, but without understanding its connection to oil, its significance can be misinterpreted. 

Firmness across crops

Firmness is one of the most common quality test worldwide. Yet one or two punctures tells very little about an entire mango, apple, or peach. With fruit this variable, testing such a small area is akin to judging a whole vineyard by tasting a couple grapes. 

Brix and acidity

Sugar content alone rarely defines quality. In berries, it’s the balance between sugar and acidity that determines consumer appeal. In grapes, maximum sweetness is prized. In citrus, the right sugar-to-acid ratio makes the difference between a juicy delight and a flat eating experience. 

Ethylene

Ethylene is the great accelerator. In storage and retail environment, ethylene triggers starch breakdown, softening, and, when left unchecked, can lead to loss of shelf life. Monitoring ethylene allows distributors and retailers to predict how long fruit will last and when it should be moved. Ignoring it can mean fruit that looks fine today but collapses tomorrow. 

The problem with “normal” 

At the packhouse level, fruit quality data tends to fall into a normal distribution. For avocados, most samples cluster around 22–26% dry matter. It’s tempting to focus only on that range. 

But the extremes, the 16% or 40% outliers, matter most. These are the fruits that fail in storage, ripen unevenly, or deliver poor eating experiences. Too often, industries focus on the middle of the curve and overlook the risks on the edges. Yet it’s those outliers that shape consumer perception and drive losses. 

Representative sampling: the missing link 

If one message comes from our half-million scans, it’s this: performing quality testing on a small sample size is not enough. 

Representative sampling is essential, but destructive methods make it difficult. Growers are reluctant to sacrifice large numbers of fruit, especially when margins are tight. That’s where non-destructive tools like NIR provide a solution - enabling large sample sizes without loss. 

When testing truly represents the orchard, the lot, or the shipment, growers and packers can make better harvest decisions, avoid costly rejections, and deliver more consistent quality to retailers. 

Retail’s new responsibility 

Historically, retailers accepted what arrived, put it on the shelf, and sold it quickly. Increasingly, however, large chains are realizing that freshness is their responsibility too. 

Large retailers have reported single commodity losses in categories like strawberries in the tens of millions of dollars per year. To reduce such losses, retailers are exploring ethylene mitigation, shelf-life monitoring, and even in-store measurement stations that predict ripeness for consumers. 

Yet retail remains a challenging environment — open, uncontrolled, and often mixing ethylene-emitting fruits (like apples) with ethylene-sensitive ones (like kiwifruit). Smarter monitoring, layout design, and atmosphere control will become more important in protecting brand reputation. 

The future: more data, smarter tools 

Where does fruit quality measurement go from here? Several trends are emerging: 

-Non-destructive internal analysis: NIR and imaging technologies will continue to expand, both handheld and inline. 

-Big data integration: Quality management platforms will allow growers, packers, and retailers to make decisions from shared datasets. 

-AI and robotics: Automated systems capable of scanning thousands of fruits per hour will make truly representative sampling feasible. 

-Harmonized standards: Global food safety and testing bodies will eventually need to validate and adopt these newer technologies, giving the industry confidence to move beyond tradition. 

A mindset shift to move the industry forward 

Perhaps the most important lesson is not technical but cultural. Agriculture has always been cautious with new technology — understandably so, given the risks and family traditions tied to farming. But as consumer expectations rise and competition increases, sticking to “what we’ve always done” is no longer enough. 

The mindset shift is simple: more data leads to better fruit. Looking inside fruit at scale reveals the patterns that tradition alone cannot. And those patterns are the foundation for consistent quality, reduced waste, and consumer loyalty. 

Fruit is one of nature’s most variable products. That variability has always been a challenge for growers and exporters — but today it’s also an opportunity. By embracing representative sampling, non-destructive testing, and data-driven decision making, the fresh produce industry can move beyond guesswork and tradition into a future defined by consistency and confidence. 

After half a million scans, the lesson is clear: the science of freshness isn’t just about measuring fruit, it’s about rethinking how we measure success. 

Want to learn more about how non-destructive tools can improve fruit quality and consistency? Send your inquiry for a free trial.