Price rises for some categories only

While prices for some categories continued to rise, select products have begun to stabilise, creating a mixed landscape that influences shopper decisions. To remain competitive and retain consumer loyalty in 2025, brands will need to stay attuned to these shifting dynamics and adapt their strategies accordingly. We examine the key factors influencing the fresh food market and present actionable insights supported by current industry data. We also offer references to research, enabling you to explore these trends in more depth.

The State of Fresh Food in 2025

Consumer interest in fresh, locally sourced, and organically produced foods has been on the rise for over a decade, influenced by growing awareness of health and environmental impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this shift, as health and wellness considerations came to the forefront for many households worldwide. Despite inflationary headwinds—seen in many high-income markets, including the United States and parts of Europe—demand for fresh foods has not disappeared. Instead, consumers are making more deliberate trade-offs, prioritising certain attributes (such as health benefits, ethical sourcing, or environmental sustainability) and scaling back on others.

Technology helps

Technological advancements in food preservation have also played a crucial role in extending the availability and quality of fresh products. Techniques such as high-pressure processing (HPP) and modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) have helped lengthen shelf life without compromising nutritional value. As these technologies become more affordable and widespread, a broader range of consumers may gain access to fresh foods that meet both quality and longevity requirements.

Four Key Market Trends in Fresh Food

Given the diversity of fresh products—encompassing everything from fruits and vegetables to meat, dairy, and bakery items—it can be challenging to identify which trends matter most to your brand. However, four broad areas stand out as critical influences on the fresh category as we move into 2025.

Inflation and Price Sensitivity

Inflation remains a defining feature of the current market. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global food prices reached record highs in 2022 before moderating somewhat in 2023 and 2024, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels.3

Supply Chain Variances

Certain categories, notably meat and dairy, have experienced sustained price increases due to supply chain disruptions, feed costs, and weather-related production challenges. As a result, consumers are becoming more price-sensitive.

Savvy households

Many households now prioritise staple items over premium offerings and are increasingly turning to private labels and bulk purchasing to manage expenses. In response, retailers and brands that find the right balance between affordability and perceived quality stand to capture loyalty. Strategies might include offering tiered product lines, communicating value through transparent sourcing information, and running targeted promotions.

The locally sourced factor

Despite cost pressures, fresh food remains a key element in health-conscious consumers’ diets. Shoppers focused on well-being and nutrition are often prepared to pay slightly more for organic or locally sourced produce. Brands that clearly convey the value proposition behind their products—be it superior taste, environmental credentials, or community support—are more likely to retain these discerning buyers.

How to ensure brands remain relevant

By understanding these trends and examining the data, brands can position themselves for success in the evolving fresh food market. As inflation stabilises, consumer demand for healthier, ethically sourced, and better-preserved products is likely to persist. The key will be to combine value-driven pricing with a strong narrative around quality and sustainability, ensuring brands remain relevant and resilient in 2025 and beyond.

Source: FPC. For more information please write here.