EU fresh tomato output set to decline as imports approach 600,000 tonnes by 2035

The EU tomato sector is expected to follow diverging paths for fresh and processing segments over the coming decade, according to the European Commission’s Agricultural Outlook 2025-2035.

Fresh tomato production in the EU is projected to decline gradually, reflecting shrinking cultivated areas in several producing countries and pressure from rising costs. While yields are expected to improve moderately, this will not fully offset the reduction in planted area. As a result, overall fresh tomato output is forecast to trend slightly lower over the outlook period.

In contrast, processing tomato production is set to increase, supported by continued investment in processing capacity and stable industrial demand. The report indicates that the EU processing sector will remain structurally stronger than the fresh segment, helping to stabilise total tomato volumes.

Consumption trends diverge

Despite lower fresh output, EU demand for tomatoes is projected to grow. Fresh tomato consumption is expected to increase by around 7 percent by 2035, driven by changing consumer preferences, including higher demand for snack-type and convenience varieties. However, consumption growth will not be uniform across Member States, with some mature markets showing limited expansion.

Demand for processed tomato products is forecast to rise more steadily. Per-capita consumption of processed tomatoes is projected to increase in all Member States, with annual growth rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.3 percent, supported by convenience food trends and stable household demand.

Imports to cover supply gap

As domestic fresh tomato production declines while consumption expands, the EU is expected to rely increasingly on imports. Net EU imports of fresh tomatoes are projected to rise steadily, reaching close to 600,000 tonnes per year by 2035, according to the report. This reflects a widening structural gap between internal supply and demand.

Exports are expected to remain broadly stable, with limited growth potential compared with imports, reinforcing the EU’s position as a net importer of fresh tomatoes over the medium term.

Outlook

The Commission concludes that the EU tomato market will remain demand-driven, with processing tomatoes gaining importance and imports playing a growing role in balancing the fresh market. Structural changes rather than short-term volatility are expected to define the sector through 2035.

Read the full report.

source: webgate.ec.europa.eu

photo: agmemod.eu, webgate.ec.europa.eu