Global fresh apple trade forecast for 2008/09 to surge

World apple production is forecast to grow 8 percent from last year due to favorable weather and improved management practices, while trade is forecast to rise 5 percent due to strong demand from the EU.

 

U.S. exports are forecast to rise 4 percent due largely to robust demand in Canada, the top export market for the United States, and ample production.

China, which accounts for over 50 percent of world apple production, is expected to produce 15 percent more apples. However, exports will likely slide 2 percent due to anticipated weaker demand in the EU and a few other traditional markets. China accounts for about 25 percent of global apple exports.

 

Russia, the world’s largest apple importer, is forecast to import 4 percent more than last year.

Despite a weakening currency and economic problems, demand for foreign apples has been strong for the first few months in 2008/09. U.S. apples, which mostly compete with EU apples in Russia, will be less competitive because of higher transportation costs.

 

EU production is forecast to expand sharply from the previous year, as production in Poland and Hungary returns to more normal levels due to favorable weather. As a result of strong demand in Russia, Ukraine, and other traditional markets, as well as higher domestic exportable supplies, EU exports are expected to surge 24 percent.