An updated forecast for Brazilian oranges production shows higher fruit losses.

The orange crop forecast 2020 – 2021 for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil currently is at 269.36 million boxes. 

 

On the 10th of December, Fundecitrus published the updated forecast, which revealed a decrease of 17.36 million boxes (-6 percent drop) compared to the September forecast.

 

Intense heat and late rainfall in the spring have significantly impeded the expected production. If the new forecast comes true until harvest ends, it will lead to the largest crop loss for Brazil’s citrus belt since 1988 – 1989 and a decline of 30.36% compared to the anterior crop season.

 

Losses caused by unfavorable weather varied from region to region. Trees that were already weakened by citrus greening disease were more sensitive to the effects of the drought, produced smaller oranges and had more fruit drop.

 

The plots in the North, Northwest and Central sectors were damaged the most, many trees died due to lack of irrigation.

 

Field survey data shows that harvest achieved 58% of the production in November, compared to 74% at the same period in 2019.

 

Taking into account all the varieties, the average fruit size expected in May was 257 fruit to fill a 40.8-kilogram box, with an average weight of 159 grams per fruit. The new size estimate has been updated to 261 fruits per box, with an approximate weight of 156 grams each.

 

The forecasted fruit drop rate has risen from 17.3 to 21.1%, reaching its highest level since 2015. 

 

All varieties, except for Seleta, Valencia Americana and Pineapple, have shown higher fruit drop rates than it was primarily expected. The fruit drop rate for Pera Rio increased from 16.5 to 22.2%, Valencia Folha Murcha and Valencia are expected to drop by 24.7%.