The global cherry market outlook for 2024-25 indicates growth driven by China, Chile, and the EU

Global cherry production for the 2024-25 season is projected to reach 5 million tons, despite a decline in Turkey, the world's largest producer, according to a report by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service). This global increase will be driven by growth in China, Chile, the European Union (EU), and the United States.

Global production

Turkey: Despite favorable conditions this year, the exceptional yields from last year will not be repeated. Production will decline by 48,000 tons, reaching 900,000 tons. However, exports are expected to remain around 85,000 tons due to European demand.

China: Production will increase by 50,000 tons, reaching 850,000 tons, despite drought in Shandong. Other regions expanded their crops with favorable conditions. Imports will grow by 7%, reaching 415,000 tons, mainly from Chile and the United States.

European Union: Production will rise to 715,000 tons, only 10,000 more than last season. Poland is still suffering the effects of the previous year's frost. European cherry consumption has more than doubled in six years and is expected to reach 1.3 million tons this year. Imports will rise to 60,000 tons, the highest level in 17 years, while exports will increase slightly to 15,000 tons, although below the five-year average.

United States: Despite frosts in Washington orchards, production will grow by 13,000 tons, reaching 413,000 tons. Exports will reach 85,000 tons, surpassing the average of the last ten years. Michigan will increase its sour cherry production, although heat and pests are affecting quality.

World exports: They are expected to reach 759,000 tons, close to the record of the previous season. The main importers would be China, Russia, the EU, Canada, and the United States, while the main exporters would be Chile, Turkey, the United States, and Uzbekistan.

Trade between China and Chile

China remains the largest importer of cherries, especially during the Chinese New Year. Imports have steadily grown from 230,000 tons in 2019/20 to 388,000 tons in 2023/24. Chile is the main supplier to China, thanks to its off-season production. During 2023-24, over 90% of Chilean exports went to China, representing half of the world's fresh cherry trade with 375,000 tons.

Growth of Chilean production

Chile is the world's fourth-largest cherry producer. Chilean cultivated area and production have almost quadrupled in the last decade, displacing less profitable crops like apples and grapes. For 2024-25, Chile estimates a new export record with 657,935 tons.

Final projections

China is expected to import 415,000 tons this season, marking ten consecutive years of growth. Economic slowdown does not seem to affect cherry demand.

Chile is projected to maintain its advantage as the only exporter in the Southern Hemisphere among the main cherry producers. This positioning ensures a fundamental role in the global market in the short term.

source: usda.gov, simfruit.cl photo: blog.investchile.gob.cl