Rerouted supply chains lift real U.S. food exports to Ukraine

U.S. agricultural shipments to Ukraine are recovering, but headline export figures capture only a fraction of the real trade now moving into the market.

A new USDA FAS Kyiv analysis shows direct U.S. exports of food and agricultural products to Ukraine reached US$63 million in 2024. Once indirect flows routed through EU countries are added, the total climbs to US$283 million — more than four times higher than official U.S. export records indicate.

Indirect routes reshape trade picture

Since 2022, logistics have shifted heavily toward European consolidation hubs. With Black Sea container traffic disrupted and traditional freight corridors constrained, a large share of U.S. goods now enters Ukraine via EU ports and overland routes.

Because these shipments are cleared into Europe first, they are logged statistically as exports to EU member states rather than to Ukraine. As a result, U.S. data captured only about one-fifth of total agricultural trade with Ukraine last year, masking the market’s true scale.

Import demand shows resilience

Even under wartime pressure, Ukrainian buyers continue sourcing imported food and agricultural inputs. Total imports of U.S. agri-food products — direct and indirect combined — rose 13% year-on-year in 2024, signalling steady restocking and consumer demand recovery.

Tree nuts move quietly through EU hubs

Within the edible nuts segment, the data gap is particularly visible.

Ukrainian import statistics show substantially higher volumes than U.S. export records for several categories, including:

Shelled almonds — one of the largest nut imports from the U.S.

Prepared nut and seed mixes — reflecting snack and retail demand.

Shelled peanuts — also moving largely via indirect channels.

The discrepancy indicates that most nut shipments are consolidated, repacked, or redistributed through European trade partners before reaching Ukrainian buyers. Beyond snack nuts, the U.S. also supplies fruit-based ingredients used by Ukraine’s food industry — including dried fruit and processed fruit inputs.

source: fas.usda.gov

graphics: tradedatamonitor.com, fas.usda.gov