Global apple production would surpass 78 million tons in 2022/23

Global apple production in 2022/23 is projected to decrease to 78.8 million tons (-3.9 million tons YOY) as a weather-affected crop in China more than offsets gains in Turkey and the European Union. Exports are estimated at 6.3 million tons (-300,000 tons YOY) due to lower output in South Africa and China, according to a recent report by USDA.

China’s apple production is forecast at 41.0 million tons (-5.0 million tons YOY) due to reducing areas and high temperatures during bloom that affected fruit set in the largest producing provinces of Shandong and Shaanxi. Some producers are replacing older varieties with new ones, however output from the new trees is not yet sufficient to offset declines derived from tree removals. Exports are estimated at 800,000 tons (-20% YOY). Imports are expected to rise to 100,000 tons (+25,000 tons YOY) on greater shipments from New Zealand.

The EU’s apple production is estimated at 12.8 million tons (+500,000 tons YOY) since Italy and France rebound from last season's frost damage and the main producer Poland continues to increase output. Exports would reach 1.3 million tons (+100,000 tons YOY). Imports are expected to drop to 320,000 tons (-11,000 tons YOY).

The U.S. production is expected at 4.5 million tons (+158,000 tons YOY). Despite slightly higher output, exports are forecast to reach 670,000 tons (-53,000 tons YOY). Imports would rise to 115,000 tons (+10,000 tons YOY) on increased supplies from New Zealand.

Chile’s production would remain at 1.0 million tons, and exports are expected to remain almost the same at 605,000 tons, with stable supplies to the main markets: the EU, Colombia, and the U.S.

Mexico’s production is estimated at 640,000 tons. Imports would remain unchanged at 265,000 tons.

New Zealand’s production is estimated at 573,000 tons (+60,000 tons YOY). Exports would increase to 385,000 tons (+45,000 tons YOY).

South Africa’s production would total 1.1 million tons (-70,000 tons YOY) due to lower yield after 2 consecutive years of record harvests. Exports are estimated at 560,000 tons (-65,000 tons YOY) due to reduced shipments and dampening demand from the main market United Kingdom due to inflation.

Turkey’s production is expected at 4.8 million tons (+277,000 tons YOY) due to favorable growing conditions and new high-yield plants coming into production. Exports are estimated at a record 420,000 tons (+22,000 tons YOY).

India’s production would slightly increase to 2.4 million tons as sufficient monsoon rain during blooming and fruit set increased yield. Imports would total 430,000 tons.

source: fas.usda.gov