What the year will be like for avocado shipments

The Economic Research Department of Scotiabank, a global bank in Canada and the Americas, has projected that Peruvian avocado exports this year will remain at similar levels to those of 2023 ($964 million). 

 

Although this year's season will continue to be affected by the high temperatures associated with the El Niño phenomenon, which will generate a decrease in the volume exported, this is expected to be offset by higher prices.

 

Thus, the average export price is expected to reach $ 1.80/kg (+12% from $ 1.61/kg in 2023), mainly due to lower world supply.

 

Prohass projects supply from California (USA) to decrease by 20-30% due to weather factors.

 

Harvests in Spain and Portugal will also be affected by water shortages, while Chile has ceased to be a major exporter as most of its production is destined for the domestic market. As for Colombia, shipments are expected to increase, although its exports only represent around 3% of the global supply.

 

Prohass estimates that, this year, the volume exported will reach 540,000 tonnes (-10% compared to 2023), due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. However, the absence of heavy rains is seen as a positive indicator, as it would not affect avocado quality.