Forecast of banana imports in developing countries

This group of countries shows the highest projected growth in imports.

 

 

East Asian developing countries are projected to have the strongest growth with an annual rate of 5.7 percent. This is particularly the case for China, where rising population and incomes combined with China’s entry into the WTO are expected to foster banana imports. Overall, East Asian imports are expected to exceed 1.2 million tonnes in 2010 (+73 percent over the decade), and prices would increase between 1 and 2 percent per annum.

 

 

In the Middle East, banana imports are projected to rise by over 50 percent to exceed 900,000 tonnes in 2010, mainly due to demographic growth and price decrease.

 

 

In Latin America, import growth is projected to be moderate due to the economic crisis in Argentina, the largest importing country, and its effects on neighbouring countries. Imports are expected to decrease in the short run and start to rise again, though at a moderate rate, from 2004. Total growth would be about 12 percent over the decade. Import prices are expected to decrease initially and then rise at a very slow rate, reflecting the economic recovery of the region.