South Africa citrus exports within 5-year average

With the official start of the 2025 citrus export season this month of April, the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) confirm that “there will be sufficient fruit for our global markets. The outlook suggests no oversupply or undersupply," said Gerrit van der Merwe, Chairman of the CGA. Overall, the quality of the fruit for 2025 looks to be excellent. The breakdown of various variety estimates indicates a balanced season ahead.

5% less lemons to 33 million cartons

The current prediction is that 32.9 million 15kg cartons of lemons will be exported to key markets, which represents a 5% decrease from last year. Estimates for citrus-producing regions the Sundays River Valley, Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal), Boland and Patensie are all down, but Hoedspruit is estimated to increase its lemon production. Early lemons have already started to be sent to overseas markets, especially to the Middle East, Russia and Canada.

5% more Navel and Valencia oranges

Predictions show a 5% increase in export volume for navel oranges, at 26.1 million 15kg cartons available for packing. The orange focus group has, for the first time, split estimates into early/mid navels (11.34 million cartons) and late navels (14.75 million cartons) to improve tracking. Last year unusual weather events such as floods in the Western Cape and frost in Limpopo affected navel exports, but, weather-permitting, volumes are expected to improve in 2025. After four years of slight declines in valencia orange figures, exports are likely to improve in 2025. An increase on 2024 figures of 6% to 52 million 15kg cartons is projected. The possible impact of juicing prices on this figure is not yet quantifiable. Last year unusually high local processing prices suppressed exports of valencia oranges.

6% export growth for grapefruit

Grapefruit exports are also predicted to increase. The 6% growth figure translates into 13.5 million 17kg cartons. The peak period for Grapefruit exports is expected to be between middle April and middle May. The grapefruit focus group is also embarking on a new marketing project this season, aiming to drive an increase in grapefruit consumption amongst a younger target audience in the European market.

Stable on mandarins

Two early mandarin varieties show stability in supply. The satsuma season is likely to again, as in 2024, close around the 1.8 million 15kg cartons mark. The nova season shows a slight 2% decrease to 4.5 million 15kg cartons. The third early mandarin variety, clementines, presents a solid increase of 10%, with exports expected to increase to 5.4 million 15kg cartons. The estimates for late mandarin varieties will only be made next month.

Logistics and sanitary two major handicaps

Long-term projections still show the industry can reach its target of exporting 260 million cartons by 2032, and in the process create 100 000 new jobs. Two of the largest challenges to achieve this target remain deficient rail and port logistics and the European Union's unnecessary phytosanitary (plant health) measures regarding Citrus Black Spot (CBS) and False Coddling Moth (FCM). But logistics is still an handicap for the export capacity of the country. A recent study by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) that found the total cost of inefficient logistics to the citrus industry amounted to R5.27 billion per year.

Still on dispute with the EU

The EU's trade restrictive and unscientific measures on CBS and FCM are the focus of two historic cases at the World Trade Organization's trade dispute body. "We hope for swift progress on the cases, but disputes like these take time. We remain optimistic for the issue to be finalized before the 2026 season. Every season the measures cost SA's growers no less than R3.7 billion, keeping especially emerging growers out of the EU market," said Justin Chadwick, outgoing CEO of the CGA.

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